Basic Poker Math: Pot Odds and Hand Odds
Don't worry. This isn't as hard as you may think. We're going to discuss hand odds and pot odds. These can help you make the right decision. With experience, you will be able to get a feel for the odds without consulting charts.
Hand Odds Briefly Explained
Hand odds tell you how likely, or unlikely you are to make a hand in poker. We're assuming you play Texas Holdem. Here are some common hands and their "outs". Outs are the cards available that can make your hand.
Outs and Poker Hands Outs You Hold To Make 2 A Pair 3 of a Kind 4 Two Pair Full House 4 Inside Straight Draw Straight 8 Open Straight Straight 9 4 to a Flush Flush 15 Open Straight Flush Draw Straight, Flush
Refer to this table for the probability of each hand:
Chances of Making Your Poker Hand (%) Outs On the Turn On the River Total 20 42.6 43.5 67.5% 19 40.4 41.3 65.0% 18 38.3 39.1 62.4% 17 36.2 37.0 59.8% 16 34.0 34.8 57.0% 15 31.9 32.6 54.1% 14 29.8 30.4 51.2% 13 27.7 28.3 48.1% 12 25.5 26.1 45.0% 11 23.4 23.9 41.7% 10 21.3 21.7 38.4% 9 19.1 19.6 35.0% 8 17.0 17.4 31.5% 7 14.9 15.2 27.8% 6 12.8 13.0 24.1% 5 10.6 10.9 20.4% 4 8.5 8.7 16.5% 3 6.4 6.5 12.5% 2 4.3 4.3 8.4% 1 2.1 2.2 4.3%
To find the probability for any hand, divide the outs of your hand by the number of unseen cards (all other cards except for your two hole cards and the cards already on the board). If, after the flop, you have a flush draw, then you have 9 outs (13 of a suit minus 4). Now 52 cards on the deck minus your 2 hole cards and the 3 flop cards is 47. So divide 9 by 47 and you get .191…. Move the decimal a bit and you get 19.1%. That's your chances of hitting the flush at that point.
Pot Odds
After hand odds come pot odds. Pot odds is the ratio of the money in the pot to the amount you have to bet for a chance to win it. Say the pot is worth $100 and you need to call $50. That makes the pot odds 2:1. You will get paid $2 for every $1.
For a bet to be worth calling, your hand odds must be better than your pot odds. In our example, you have less than a 20% chance of making the flush. That's 1/5. This tells you that you are risking more for less. Your chances of making the hand is smaller than what you stand to win. So the bet isn't worth calling. If you do, you will lose in the long run. But if the pot is big and you only need to call a small bet, it will be worth calling.
That is how poker odds work. They tell you when a bet is worth making and when it isn't. Next time you need to make a tough decision, consult your poker odds.
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